Fragility assessment of chemical storage tanks subject to floods

• Published in: Process safety and environmental protection Vol. 111; pp. 75 - 84
• Main Authors: Khakzad, Nima, Van Gelder, Pieter
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Rugby Elsevier B.V 01.10.2017; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: Atmospheric storage tanks; Bayesian analysis; Bayesian network; Chemical damage; Chemical spills; Disasters; Failure modes; Flood damage; Floods; Flotation; Fragility; Limit state equations; Load resistance; Logistic regression; Natech accidents; Organic chemistry; Storage tanks; Technology; Atmospheric storage tanks; Logistic regression; Floods; Natech accidents; Bayesian network; Limit state equations
• ISSN: 0957-5820; 1744-3598
• DOI: 10.1016/j.psep.2017.06.012

•A methodology is proposed for fragility assessment of chemical plants in case of floods.•Fragility functions are generated using limit state equations and logistic regression.•Floatation, shell buckling, and impact-induced sliding are considered as prevailing failure modes.•Bayesian network is used to combine the fragility functions. In the context of natural-technological (natech) accidents, flood-induced damage of chemical facilities have received relatively less attention mainly due to the scarcity of experimental or high resolution field observations. In the present study, we have introduced a methodology based on load-resistance relationships to assess the vulnerability of process facilities in form of fragility functions. While logistic regression is used to develop fragility functions for different failure modes such as floatation, buckling, and sliding, Bayesian network is employed to combine the fragility functions, taking into account common causes and conditional dependencies. Although the application of the methodology has been demonstrated on atmospheric storage tanks, it can be applied to fragility assessment of a variety of chemical and process vessels.