COVID-19 lockdown induces disease-mitigating structural changes in mobility networks

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic many countries implemented containment measures to reduce disease transmission. Studies using digital data sources show that the mobility of individuals was effectively reduced in multiple countries. However, it remains unclear whether these reductions caused dee...

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Published inProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 117; no. 52; pp. 32883 - 32890
Main Authors Schlosser, Frank, Maier, Benjamin F., Jack, Olivia, Hinrichs, David, Zachariae, Adrian, Brockmann, Dirk
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States National Academy of Sciences 29.12.2020
SeriesFrom the Cover
Subjects
Cell Phone
COVID-19 - prevention & control
Germany
Humans
Pandemics
Physical Sciences
Quarantine
Social Sciences
Spatial Analysis
Travel - statistics & numerical data
Germany
COVID-19
human mobility
mobile phones
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Summary:In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic many countries implemented containment measures to reduce disease transmission. Studies using digital data sources show that the mobility of individuals was effectively reduced in multiple countries. However, it remains unclear whether these reductions caused deeper structural changes in mobility networks and how such changes may affect dynamic processes on the network. Here we use movement data of mobile phone users to show that mobility in Germany has not only been reduced considerably: Lockdown measures caused substantial and long-lasting structural changes in the mobility network. We find that long-distance travel was reduced disproportionately strongly. The trimming of long-range network connectivity leads to a more local, clustered network and a moderation of the “small-world” effect. We demonstrate that these structural changes have a considerable effect on epidemic spreading processes by “flattening” the epidemic curve and delaying the spread to geographically distant regions.
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Edited by Nils Chr. Stenseth, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway, and approved October 20, 2020 (received for review June 26, 2020)
Author contributions: F.S., B.F.M., and D.B. designed research; F.S. and B.F.M. performed research; F.S., B.F.M., O.J., D.H., and A.Z. analyzed data; and F.S., B.F.M., and D.B. wrote the paper.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.2012326117