Modelling the Brumadinho tailings dam failure, the subsequent loss of life and how it could have been reduced

• Published in: Natural hazards and earth system sciences Vol. 21; no. 1; pp. 21 - 37
• Main Authors: Lumbroso, Darren, Davison, Mark, Body, Richard, Petkovšek, Gregor
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Katlenburg-Lindau Copernicus GmbH 07.01.2021; Copernicus Publications
• Subjects: Agent-based models; Analysis; Dam failure; Dams; Debris flow; Emergency plans; Failure; Fatalities; Infrastructure; Mine accidents; Mine tailings; Mine wastes; Mines; Mining; Modelling; Mortality; Mudflows; Risk reduction; Tailings; Brazil
• ISSN: 1684-9981; 1561-8633; 1684-9981
• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-21-21-2021

In recent years the number of tailings dams failures has increased. On 25 January 2019, the Brumadinho tailings dam in Brazil suddenly failed, releasing a mudflow over 10 m deep comprising some 107 m3 of mining waste which killed between 270 and 320 people. This paper details the use of an agent-based model, known as the Life Safety Model (LSM), to estimate the risk to people downstream of the Brumadinho tailings dam and to assess if the number of fatalities could have been reduced if a warning had been received prior to or at time the dam failed. The LSM modelling indicates that even if a warning had been issued as the dam failed, the number of fatalities could have been reduced. Agent-based modelling tools such as the LSM can help to inform and improve emergency plans for tailings dams, which will help to reduce the risks posed by them in the future.