Sensitivity of contrail coverage and contrail radiative forcing to selected key parameters

• Published in: Atmospheric environment (1994) Vol. 45; no. 7; pp. 1483 - 1490
• Main Authors: Frömming, C., Ponater, M., Burkhardt, U., Stenke, A., Pechtl, S., Sausen, R.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.03.2011; Elsevier
• Subjects: air; Air traffic; Applied sciences; atmospheric chemistry; Atmospheric pollution; Aviation; Calibration; climate change; Climate impact; climate models; Contrail coverage; Contrails; detection limit; diurnal variation; Estimates; Exact sciences and technology; Mathematical models; Optical depth; Pollution; Radiative forcing; Thresholds; traffic; Uncertainty; Aviation; Climate impact; Air traffic; Optical depth; Radiative forcing; Contrail coverage; Uncertainty; Sensitivity analysis; Annual variation; Tropical zone; Air quality; Calibration; Diurnal variation; Modeling; Dynamical climatology; Climate change; Detection threshold; Visibility; Optical thickness; Particle shape
• ISSN: 1352-2310; 1873-2844
• DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.11.033

Estimates of global mean radiative forcing of line-shaped contrails are associated with a high level of uncertainty. Recent estimates for present day air traffic range from 5.4mWm−2 to 25.6mWm−2. The aim of this research paper is to systematically study the sensitivity of contrail radiative forcing to selected key parameters and to highlight the most important factors for this large uncertainty range, while employing an improved version of the ECHAM climate model. The dominating parameters on contrail radiative forcing are found to be the detection threshold used for calibrating contrail coverage to observations, and the mean optical depth. Assuming a detection threshold of 0.05 instead of 0.02 yields an increase of the total coverage, resulting in a 146% increase of global mean contrail radiative forcing. Employing a globally constant optical depth of up to 0.3, increases the net radiative forcing by 140% over the reference case which has a mean optical depth of 0.08. An upgraded parameterisation of potential contrail coverage yields a significantly larger amount of tropical contrails, increasing the contrail radiative forcing by 53%. The calibration to an alternative observation region along with the assumption of a higher visibility threshold yields an increase of the radiative forcing by 46%. Moderate sensitivity of global contrail radiative forcing (∼15%) is found for an improvement of model climate and for changes in particle shape. The air traffic inventory, air traffic density parameter, and the diurnal variation of air traffic have only a small effect on global and annual mean contrail radiative forcing, but their influence on regional and seasonal contrail radiative forcing may nevertheless be important. ► Important parameters for the sensitivity of global contrail radiative forcing are: ► The detection threshold for calibrating contrail coverage to observations. ► The mean optical depth. ► An upgraded parameterisation of potential contrail coverage. ► The observation region used for calibration. ► An upgraded model version featuring improved model climate and the contrail particle shape.