Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Prosthechea mariae (Orchidaceae) and within Protected Areas in Mexico

• Published in: Plants (Basel) Vol. 13; no. 6; p. 839
• Main Authors: Alanís-Méndez, José Luis, Soto, Víctor, Limón-Salvador, Francisco
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Switzerland MDPI AG 14.03.2024; MDPI
• Subjects: Adaptation; Climate change; Climate effects; Climatic changes; Climatic data; Current distribution; Distribution; endemic plants; Endemic species; Environmental aspects; Environmental conditions; Environmental impact; Epiphytes; Euchile; General circulation models; Geographical distribution; Habitat availability; Habitat fragmentation; Habitats; Indigenous species; Orchids; Protected areas; species conservation; species distribution models; Mexico; species conservation; Euchile; endemic plants; species distribution models; climate change
• ISSN: 2223-7747; 2223-7747
• DOI: 10.3390/plants13060839

The impact of climate change on the distribution of native species in the Neotropics remains uncertain for most species. is an endemic epiphytic orchid in Mexico, categorized as threatened. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of climate change on the natural distribution of and the capacity of protected areas (PAs) to safeguard optimal environmental conditions for the species in the future. Historical records were obtained from herbaria collections and through field surveys. We utilized climate variables from WorldClim for the baseline scenario and for the 2050 period, using the general circulation models CCSM4 and CNRM-CM5 (RCP 4.5). Three sets of climate data were created for the distribution models, and multiple models were evaluated using the kuenm package. We found that the species is restricted to the eastern region of the country. The projections of future scenarios predict not only a substantial reduction in habitat but also an increase in habitat fragmentation. Ten PAs were found within the current distribution area of the species; in the future, the species could lose between 36% and 48% of its available habitat within these PAs. The results allowed for the identification of locations where climate change will have the most severe effects, and proposals for long-term conservation are addressed.