Real-time physiologic biomarker for prediction of atrial fibrillation recurrence, stroke, and mortality after electrical cardioversion: A prospective observational study

• Published in: The American heart journal Vol. 170; no. 5; pp. 914 - 922
• Main Authors: Melduni, Rowlens M., MD, MPH, Lee, Hon-Chi, MD, PhD, Bailey, Kent R., PhD, Miller, Fletcher A., MD, Hodge, David O., MS, Seward, James B., MD, Gersh, Bernard J., MB, ChB, DPhil, Ammash, Naser M., MD
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Elsevier Inc 01.11.2015; Elsevier Limited
• Subjects: Aged; Atrial Appendage - diagnostic imaging; Atrial Appendage - physiopathology; Atrial Fibrillation - complications; Atrial Fibrillation - physiopathology; Atrial Fibrillation - therapy; Blood Flow Velocity - physiology; Cardiac arrhythmia; Cardiology; Cardiovascular; Disease-Free Survival; Echocardiography, Transesophageal; Electric Countershock; Female; Follow-Up Studies; Humans; Incidence; Kaplan-Meier Estimate; Male; Monitoring, Physiologic - methods; Mortality; Prospective Studies; Recurrence; Stroke; Stroke - epidemiology; Stroke - etiology; Survival Rate - trends; United States - epidemiology
• ISSN: 0002-8703; 1097-6744
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ahj.2015.07.027

Background Left atrial appendage emptying flow velocity (LAAEV) depends largely on left atrioventricular compliance and may play a role in mediating the perpetuation of atrial fibrillation (AF) and AF-related outcomes. Methods We identified 3,251 consecutive patients with sustained AF undergoing first-time successful transesophageal echocardiography (TEE)-guided electrical cardioversion who were enrolled in a prospective registry between May 2000 and March 2012. Left atrial appendage emptying flow velocity was stratified into quartiles: ≤20.2, 20.3-33.9, 34-49.9, and ≥50 cm/s. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to identify independent predictors of AF recurrence, ischemic stroke, and all-cause mortality. Results The mean (SD) age was 69 (12.6) years and 67% were men. Compared with the fourth quartile, patients in the first-third quartiles were significantly older, had higher CHA2 DS2 -VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes mellitus, stroke/transient ischemic attack [TIA], vascular disease, age 65-74 years, sex category) scores, greater frequency of atrial spontaneous echo contrast, and AF of longer duration. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a decreased probability of event-free survival with decreasing quartiles of LAAEV. Five-year cumulative event rates across first-fourth quartiles were 83%, 80%, 73%, and 73% ( P < .001) for first AF recurrence; 7.5%, 7.0%, 4.1%, and 4.0%, for stroke ( P = .01); and 31.3%, 26.1%, 24.1%, and 19.4%, for mortality ( P < .001), respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed an independent association of the first and second quartiles with AF recurrence ( P < .001 and P < .001, respectively) and stroke ( P = .03, and P = .04, respectively), and of the first quartile with mortality ( P = .003). Conclusions Patients with decreased LAAEV have an increased risk of AF recurrence, stroke, and mortality after successful electrical cardioversion. Real-time measurement of LAAEV by TEE may be a useful physiologic biomarker for individualizing treatment decisions in patients with AF.