Resonance of the epidemic threshold in a periodic environment

• Published in: Journal of mathematical biology Vol. 57; no. 5; pp. 649 - 673
• Main Authors: Bacaër, Nicolas, Abdurahman, Xamxinur
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer-Verlag 01.11.2008; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Algorithms; Animals; Applications of Mathematics; Communicable Diseases, Emerging - epidemiology; Communicable Diseases, Emerging - transmission; Epidemiologic Methods; Humans; Mathematical and Computational Biology; Mathematics; Mathematics and Statistics; Models, Biological; Periodicity; Population Dynamics; Seasons; Perturbation theory; 45A05; SEIR model; 92D30; 92D25; Epidemic threshold; Resonance; Reproductive value
• ISSN: 0303-6812; 1432-1416
• DOI: 10.1007/s00285-008-0183-1

Resonance between some natural period of an endemic disease and a seasonal periodic contact rate has been the subject of intensive study. This paper does not focus on resonance for endemic diseases but on resonance for emerging diseases. Periodicity can have an important impact on the initial growth rate and therefore on the epidemic threshold. Resonance occurs when the Euler–Lotka equation has a complex root with an imaginary part (i.e., a natural frequency) close to the angular frequency of the contact rate and a real part not too far from the Malthusian parameter. This is a kind of continuous-time analogue of work by Tuljapurkar on discrete-time population models, which in turn was motivated by the work by Coale on continuous-time demographic models with a periodic birth. We illustrate this resonance phenomenon on several simple epidemic models with contacts varying periodically on a weekly basis, and explain some surprising differences, e.g., between a periodic SEIR model with an exponentially distributed latency and the same model but with a fixed latency.