Future Pathways of Water, Energy, and Food in the Eastern Nile Basin

• Published in: Earth's future Vol. 12; no. 12
• Main Authors: Abdelkader, Ahmed, Elshorbagy, Amin, Elshamy, Mohamed, Wheater, Howard
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bognor Regis John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.12.2024; Wiley
• Subjects: Agricultural production; Climate change; Computer simulation; Computer-generated environments; eastern nile basin; Economic aspects; Egypt; Electricity; Energy; energy nexus; Energy supply; Environmental aspects; Environmental impact; Ethiopia; Food; Food production; Food supply; GERD; Hydroelectric power; Hydroelectric power generation; nile; Planning; Population growth; Precipitation; Regional development; Regional planning; Rivers; Sensitivity analysis; Social interactions; South Sudan; Sudan; Transboundary waters; water; Water resources; Water scarcity; Water supply; Watersheds; South Sudan; Ethiopia; Egypt; Sudan; Nile River
• ISSN: 2328-4277; 2328-4277
• DOI: 10.1029/2023EF003979

The Eastern Nile Basin (ENB) countries of Egypt, Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia are subject to pronounced water, energy, and food (WEF) insecurity. There is a need to manage the WEF nexus to meet rapidly increasing demands, but this is extremely challenging due to resource scarcity and climate change. If countries that rely on shared transboundary water resources have contradictory WEF plans, that could diminish the expected outcomes, both nationally and regionally. Egypt as the most downstream Nile country is concerned about ongoing and future developments upstream, which could exacerbate Egypt's water scarcity and affect its ability to meet its WEF objectives. In this context, we introduce a multi‐model WEF framework that simulates the ENB water resources, food production, and hydropower generation systems. The models were calibrated and validated for the period 1983–2016, then utilized to project a wide range of future development plans, up to 2050, using four performance measures to evaluate the WEF nexus. A thematic pathway for regional development that shows high potential for mutual benefits is identified. However, the WEF planning outcomes for the region are sensitive to climate change, but, if social drivers could be managed (e.g., by lowering population growth rates) despite the difficulties involved, climate change impacts on WEF security could be less severe. Plain Language Summary The countries of the ENB ‐ Egypt, Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia—each have problems with the three key sectors of water, energy, and food. It is challenging to manage these sectors when resources are limited, population is rapidly growing, and climate is changing. The four countries share the water resources of the Nile River, and if they do not coordinate planning, WEF conditions are likely to deteriorate, for each country and for the region as a whole. Egypt, the most downstream country, is concerned that upstream plans may significantly affect its Nile water supply. Hence a modeling study was carried out to understand how the water, energy, and food sectors are connected in the region. This included projecting alternative future plans and showed that few could work well for all countries. However, the outcomes can be greatly affected by climate and socioeconomic changes. We suggest that it is crucial to coordinate WEF planning in the region for the countries to face these challenges together. Key Points A framework for the assessment of future WEF plans in the Eastern Nile Basin (ENB) countries is introduced The analysis reveals significant WEF planning tradeoffs among the basin countries; specific plans with reduced tradeoffs are highlighted Climate change results in high uncertainty in planning outcomes; this requires a high level of cooperation between the ENB countries