Ability of a land surface model to predict climate induced changes in northern Russian river runoff during the 21st century

The objective of the present study is application of the land surface model SWAP to project climate change impact on northern Russian river runoff up to 2100 using meteorological projections from the atmosphere–ocean global climate model INMCM4.0. The study was performed for the Northern Dvina River...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inProceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences Vol. 371; no. 371; pp. 59 - 64
Main Authors Nasonova, O N, Gusev, Y M, Volodin, E M, Kovalev, E E
Format Journal Article Conference Proceeding
LanguageEnglish
Published Gottingen Copernicus GmbH 01.01.2015
Copernicus Publications
Subjects
Atmospheric forcing
Atmospheric models
Basins
Bias
Climate change
Climate models
Climate prediction
Climatic conditions
Emissions
Environmental impact
Global climate
Global climate models
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
Heat
Hydrology
Intercomparison
Land surface models
Post-production processing
Precipitation
River discharge
River flow
River runoff
Rivers
Runoff
Simulation
Stream flow
Surface runoff
Temperature
Russia
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Summary:The objective of the present study is application of the land surface model SWAP to project climate change impact on northern Russian river runoff up to 2100 using meteorological projections from the atmosphere–ocean global climate model INMCM4.0. The study was performed for the Northern Dvina River and the Kolyma River characterized by different climatic conditions. The ability of both models to reproduce the observed river runoff was investigated. To apply SWAP for hydrological projections, the robustness of the model was evaluated. The river runoff projections up to 2100 were calculated for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios: RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 prepared for the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For each scenario, several runoff projections were obtained using different models (INMCM4.0 and SWAP) and different post-processing techniques for correcting biases in meteorological forcing data. Differences among the runoff projections obtained for the same emission scenario and the same period illustrate uncertainties resulted from application of different models and bias-correcting techniques.
ISSN:2199-899X
2199-8981
2199-899X
DOI:10.5194/piahs-371-59-2015