Detailed simulation of electrical demands due to nationwide adoption of heat pumps, taking account of renewable generation and mitigation

• Published in: IET renewable power generation Vol. 10; no. 3; pp. 380 - 387
• Main Authors: Cooper, Samuel J.G, Hammond, Geoffrey P, McManus, Marcelle C, Pudjianto, Danny
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: The Institution of Engineering and Technology 01.03.2016
• Subjects: Computer simulation; demand side management; detailed electrical demand simulation; DSM; Dwellings; Electrification; emission reduction; Heat pumps; Heating; heating electrification; high‐performance heat pumps; nationwide adoption; non dispatchable generation; Peak load; peak net‐demand; peak power demand; power engineering computing; renewable generation; renewable mitigation; Simulation; thermal energy storage; Thermal storage; wind generation; wind power; British Isles; detailed electrical demand simulation; non dispatchable generation; heating electrification; wind generation; peak power demand; thermal storage; heat pumps; power engineering computing; peak net-demand; thermal energy storage; wind power; renewable generation; emission reduction; nationwide adoption; demand side management; high-performance heat pumps; renewable mitigation; DSM
• ISSN: 1752-1416; 1752-1424; 1752-1424
• DOI: 10.1049/iet-rpg.2015.0127

This study quantifies the increase in the peak power demand, net of non-dispatchable generation, that may be required by widespread adoption of heat pumps. Electrification of heating could reduce emissions but also cause a challenging increase in peak power demand. This study expands on previous studies by quantifying the increase in greater detail; considering a wider range of scenarios, the characteristics of heat pumps and the interaction between wind generation and demand side management (DSM). A model was developed with dynamic simulations of individual heat pumps and dwellings. The increase in peak net-demand is highly sensitive to assumptions regarding the heat pumps, their installation, building fabric and the characteristics of the grid. If 80% of dwellings in the UK use heat pumps, peak net-demand could increase by around 100% (54 GW) but this increase could be mitigated to 30% (16 GW) by favourable conditions. DSM could reduce this increase to 20%, or 15% if used with extensive thermal storage. If 60% of dwellings use heat pumps, the increase in peak net-demand could be as low as 5.5 GW. High-performance heat pumps, appropriate installation and better insulated dwellings could make the increase in peak net-demand due to the electrification of heating more manageable.