An introduction to Bayesian model selection for evaluating informative hypotheses

Most researchers have specific expectations concerning their research questions. These may be derived from theory, empirical evidence, or both. Yet despite these expectations, most investigators still use null hypothesis testing to evaluate their data, that is, when analysing their data they ignore...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inEuropean journal of developmental psychology Vol. 8; no. 6; pp. 713 - 729
Main Authors van de Schoot, Rens, Mulder, Joris, Hoijtink, Herbert, Van Aken, Marcel A. G., Semon Dubas, Judith, Orobio de Castro, Bram, Meeus, Wim, Romeijn, Jan-Willem
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Hove Psychology Press 01.11.2011
Taylor & Francis Ltd
Subjects
Bayes factors
Bayesian model selection
Biological and medical sciences
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Hypothesis testing
Inequality constraints
Informative hypothesis
Personality
Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry
Psychology. Psychophysiology
Psychometrics. Statistics. Methodology
Psychosocial functioning
Statistics. Mathematics
Human
Model selection
Personality
Inequality constraints
Statistical method
Bayesian model selection
Bayesian approach
Social behavior
Social interaction
Bayes tactors
Adolescent
Probabilistic model
Psychosocial functioning
Informative hypothesis
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Summary:Most researchers have specific expectations concerning their research questions. These may be derived from theory, empirical evidence, or both. Yet despite these expectations, most investigators still use null hypothesis testing to evaluate their data, that is, when analysing their data they ignore the expectations they have. In the present article, Bayesian model selection is presented as a means to evaluate the expectations researchers have, that is, to evaluate so called informative hypotheses. Although the methodology to do this has been described in previous articles, these are rather technical and havemainly been published in statistical journals. The main objective of thepresent article is to provide a basic introduction to the evaluation of informative hypotheses using Bayesian model selection. Moreover, what is new in comparison to previous publications on this topic is that we provide guidelines on how to interpret the results. Bayesian evaluation of informative hypotheses is illustrated using an example concerning psychosocial functioning and the interplay between personality and support from family.
ISSN:1740-5629
1740-5610
DOI:10.1080/17405629.2011.621799