Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming

• Published in: Ecology and evolution Vol. 6; no. 17; pp. 6097 - 6106
• Main Authors: Jarvis, Lauren, McCann, Kevin, Tunney, Tyler, Gellner, Gabriel, Fryxell, John M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.09.2016; John Wiley and Sons Inc
• Subjects: Biodiversity; Climate change; Climate warming; Collapse; early warning signals; Earth surface; ecology; Ecosystem stability; Ecosystems; Endangered & extinct species; Environmental changes; Environmental conditions; Extinction; Growth models; Growth rate; Metabolism; Original Research; Population; population extinction; statistical indicators of collapse; Temperature effects; Theory; thermal performance; Threatened species; ecology; thermal performance; Climate warming; statistical indicators of collapse; population extinction; early warning signals
• ISSN: 2045-7758; 2045-7758
• DOI: 10.1002/ece3.2339

Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1–4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature‐induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change.