Model-based assessment of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics by wastewater analysis

• Published in: The Science of the total environment Vol. 827; p. 154235
• Main Authors: Proverbio, Daniele, Kemp, Françoise, Magni, Stefano, Ogorzaly, Leslie, Cauchie, Henry-Michel, Gonçalves, Jorge, Skupin, Alexander, Aalto, Atte
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier B.V 25.06.2022; The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V
• Subjects: COVID-19; COVID-19 - epidemiology; Early warning system; Epidemiological modelling; Humans; Kalman filter; RNA, Viral; SARS-CoV-2; Surveillance of wastewater for early epidemic prediction (SWEEP); Wastewater; Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Monitoring; Wastewater-based epidemiology; COVID-19; Epidemiological modelling; Surveillance of wastewater for early epidemic prediction (SWEEP); Kalman filter; Wastewater-based epidemiology; Early warning system
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154235

Continuous surveillance of COVID-19 diffusion remains crucial to control its diffusion and to anticipate infection waves. Detecting viral RNA load in wastewater samples has been suggested as an effective approach for epidemic monitoring and the development of an effective warning system. However, its quantitative link to the epidemic status and the stages of outbreak is still elusive. Modelling is thus crucial to address these challenges. In this study, we present a novel mechanistic model-based approach to reconstruct the complete epidemic dynamics from SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater. Our approach integrates noisy wastewater data and daily case numbers into a dynamical epidemiological model. As demonstrated for various regions and sampling protocols, it quantifies the case numbers, provides epidemic indicators and accurately infers future epidemic trends. Following its quantitative analysis, we also provide recommendations for wastewater data standards and for their use as warning indicators against new infection waves. In situations of reduced testing capacity, our modelling approach can enhance the surveillance of wastewater for early epidemic prediction and robust and cost-effective real-time monitoring of local COVID-19 dynamics. [Display omitted] •Wastewater-based epidemiology tracks the diffusion of infectious diseases.•Suitable models are needed at the core of wastewater-based epidemiology.•Mechanistic model-based wastewater analyser is developed.•The method infers variables of epidemiological interest and predicts future dynamics.•The method allows to quantify the wastewater real-time early warning performance.