Confronting Management Challenges in Highly Uncertain Natural Resource Systems: a Robustness-Vulnerability Trade-off Approach

• Published in: Environmental modeling & assessment Vol. 16; no. 1; pp. 15 - 36
• Main Authors: Rodriguez, Armando A, Cifdaloz, Oguzhan, Anderies, John Martin, Janssen, Marco A, Dickeson, Jeffrey
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands 01.02.2011; Springer Netherlands; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Analysis; Applications of Mathematics; Control theory; Delay; Distribution (Probability theory); Earth and Environmental Science; Embedded systems; Environment; Environmental monitoring; Fish industry; Fisheries; Fisheries management; issues and policy; Learning; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science; Mathematical Modeling and Industrial Mathematics; Mathematical models; Natural resource management; Natural resources; Operations Research/Decision Theory; Optimization techniques; parameter uncertainty; Policies; Policy implementation; probability distribution; Resource management; Robust control; Robustness; Studies; Tradeoff analysis; Tradeoffs; Uncertainty; Vulnerability; Robust control; Learning; Uncertainty; Vulnerability; Resource management; Policy implementation
• ISSN: 1420-2026; 1573-2967
• DOI: 10.1007/s10666-010-9229-z

This paper presents a framework for the study of policy implementation in highly uncertain natural resource systems in which uncertainty cannot be characterized by probability distributions. We apply the framework to parametric uncertainty in the traditional Gordon-Schaefer model of a fishery to illustrate how performance can be sacrificed (traded-off) for reduced sensitivity and hence increased robustness, with respect to model parameter uncertainty. With sufficient data, our robustness-vulnerability analysis provides tools to discuss policy options. When less data are available, it can be used to inform the early stages of a learning process. Several key insights emerge from this analysis: (1) the classic optimal control policy can be very sensitive to parametric uncertainty, (2) even mild robustness properties are difficult to achieve for the simple Gordon-Schaefer model, and (3) achieving increased robustness with respect to some parameters (e.g., biological parameters) necessarily results in increased sensitivity (decreased robustness) with respect to other parameters (e.g., economic parameters). We thus illustrate fundamental robustness-vulnerability trade-offs and the limits to robust natural resource management. Finally, we use the framework to explore the effects of infrequent sampling and delays on policy performance.