Woody-biomass projections and drivers of change in sub-Saharan Africa

• Published in: Nature climate change Vol. 11; no. 5; pp. 449 - 455
• Main Authors: Ross, C. Wade, Hanan, Niall P., Prihodko, Lara, Anchang, Julius, Ji, Wenjie, Yu, Qiuyan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 2021; Nature Publishing Group
• Subjects: 704/106/694/2786; 704/158/1745; 704/158/2465; 704/844/2739/2807; 704/844/2787; Anthropocene; Anthropogenic factors; Biomass; Carbon; Carbon capture and storage; Carbon sequestration; Climate and land use; Climate Change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Compounding effects; Earth and Environmental Science; Ecosystems; Environment; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice; Fires; Human influences; Land use; Perturbation; Population growth; Trends; Vegetation; Woody plants; East Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
• ISSN: 1758-678X; 1758-6798
• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01034-5

Africa’s ecosystems have an important role in global carbon dynamics, yet consensus is lacking regarding the amount of carbon stored in woody vegetation and the potential impacts to carbon storage in response to changes in climate, land use and other Anthropocene risks. In this study, we explore the socioenvironmental conditions that have shaped the contemporary distribution of woody vegetation across sub-Saharan Africa and evaluate ecosystem response to multiple scenarios of climate change, anthropogenic pressures and fire disturbance. Our projections suggest climate change will have a small but negative effect on above-ground woody biomass at the continental scale, and the compounding effects of population growth, increasing human pressures and socioclimatic-driven changes in fire behaviour further exacerbate climate-driven trends. Relatively modest continental-scale trends obscure much larger regional perturbations, with climatic and anthropogenic factors leading to increased carbon storage potential in East Africa, offset by large deficits in West, Central and Southern Africa. The amount of carbon stored in African ecosystems and how climate change will affect this is uncertain. Projections indicate that carbon storage will increase in East Africa, climate change will have an overall negative impact on woody biomass and that other human pressures will amplify the trend.