Investigation of the urbanization contribution to the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran and the MECA countries

• Published in: Environment, development and sustainability Vol. 23; no. 12; pp. 17964 - 17985
• Main Authors: Bijari, Nikta Bahman, Mahdinia, Mohammad Hadi, Mansouri Daneshvar, Mohammad Reza
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.12.2021; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Carbon dioxide; Carbon dioxide emissions; Cluster analysis; Clustering; Coronaviruses; Correlation coefficient; Correlation coefficients; COVID-19; Earth and Environmental Science; Ecology; Economic Geology; Economic Growth; Emissions; Energy consumption; Environment; Environmental Economics; Environmental Management; Greenhouse gases; Independent variables; Nitrogen dioxide; Nitrous oxide; Outbreaks; Population; Sustainable Development; Urban areas; Urban population; Urban populations; Urbanization; Variables; Viral diseases; Iran; Urbanization; Clustering analysis; Population; COVID-19 outbreak; Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
• ISSN: 1387-585X; 1573-2975; 1573-2975
• DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01423-y

The main objective of this research was to disclose the correlative contribution of urban-associated factors affecting the COVID-19 outbreak in the macro-scale of MECA countries and the downscaled micro-scale of the provincial divisions in Iran. For this purpose, the correlation coefficients between the variables and clustering analysis were used to expose the possible effects. Results revealed the comparatively strong relationships between some independent variables (e.g., total greenhouse gas emissions, CO 2 emissions, nitrous oxide emissions, and urban population) and confirmed cases (R from 0.619 to 0.695), demonstrating the possible effective role of urbanization and its induced GHG emissions on the COVID-19 outbreak in the country level of the MECA region. Therefore, the results significantly confirmed the strong relationships between some independent variables (e.g., total population, urban population, fuel consumption, NO 2 –CO 2 emissions, energy use, and total intra-changed travels) and confirmed cases (R from 0.724 to 0.945), explaining an explicit relationship between urbanization processes and the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran. Besides, the HCA results revealed the substantial role of the urban population and urban-induced energy use and gas emission in clustering locations regarding the COVID-19 outbreak in both the MECA region and Iran. The main implication of this research is to give a practical correlation between Coronavirus infection and urban constitution, aiming to increase the health of urban societies by creating effective planning in the future.