An Epidemiological Model of Malaria Accounting for Asymptomatic Carriers

• Published in: Bulletin of mathematical biology Vol. 82; no. 3; p. 42
• Main Authors: Aguilar, Jacob B., Gutierrez, Juan B.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Springer US 14.03.2020; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Animals; Anopheles - parasitology; Bifurcations; Carrier State - epidemiology; Carrier State - immunology; Carrier State - transmission; Cell Biology; Computer Simulation; Endemic Diseases - prevention & control; Endemic Diseases - statistics & numerical data; Epidemiology; Female; Host-Parasite Interactions - immunology; Humans; Immunity, Innate; Life Sciences; Malaria; Malaria - epidemiology; Malaria - immunology; Malaria - transmission; Mathematical and Computational Biology; Mathematical Concepts; Mathematical models; Mathematics; Mathematics and Statistics; Models, Biological; Mosquito Vectors - parasitology; Original; Original Article; Parameters; Plasmodium - growth & development; Plasmodium - pathogenicity; Qualitative analysis; Signs and symptoms; Stability analysis; Reproductive threshold; 92D30; Sensitivity analysis; 92D25; Asymptomatic malaria; 37N25; Relapse malaria; Naturally acquired immunity
• ISSN: 0092-8240; 1522-9602; 1522-9602
• DOI: 10.1007/s11538-020-00717-y

Asymptomatic individuals in the context of malarial disease are subjects who carry a parasite load, but do not show clinical symptoms. A correct understanding of the influence of asymptomatic individuals on transmission dynamics will provide a comprehensive description of the complex interplay between the definitive host (female Anopheles mosquito), intermediate host (human), and agent ( Plasmodium parasite). The goal of this article is to conduct a rigorous mathematical analysis of a new compartmentalized malaria model accounting for asymptomatic human hosts for the purpose of calculating the basic reproductive number ( R 0 ) and determining the bifurcations that might occur at the onset of disease-free equilibrium. A point of departure of this model from others appearing in the literature is that the asymptomatic compartment is decomposed into two mutually disjoint sub-compartments by making use of the naturally acquired immunity of the population under consideration. After deriving the model, a qualitative analysis is carried out to classify the stability of the equilibria of the system. Our results show that the dynamical system is locally asymptotically stable provided that R 0 < 1 . However, this stability is not global, owning to the occurrence of a sub-critical bifurcation in which additional non-trivial sub-threshold equilibrium solutions appear in response to a specified parameter being perturbed. To ensure that the model does not undergo a backward bifurcation, we demand an auxiliary parameter denoted Λ < 1 in addition to the threshold constraint R 0 < 1 . The authors hope that this qualitative analysis will fill in the gaps of what is currently known about asymptomatic malaria and aid in designing strategies that assist the further development of malaria control and eradication efforts.