Small-world effects in a modified epidemiological model with mutation and permanent immune mechanism

• Published in: Nonlinear dynamics Vol. 106; no. 2; pp. 1557 - 1572
• Main Authors: Cao, Shengli, Feng, Peihua, Wang, Wei, Shi, Yayun, Zhang, Jiazhong
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.10.2021; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Amplitudes; Automotive Engineering; Classical Mechanics; Control; Coordination numbers; Dynamical Systems; Engineering; Epidemics; Epidemiology; Immunization; Infections; Mathematical models; Mechanical Engineering; Mutation; Original Paper; Pandemics; Parameters; Vibration; Viruses; Pandemic; Small-world network; Mutation; SIR model
• ISSN: 0924-090X; 1573-269X
• DOI: 10.1007/s11071-021-06519-8

Pandemic with mutation and permanent immune spreading in a small-world network described is studied by a modified SIR model, with consideration of mutation-immune mechanism. First, a novel mutation-immune model is proposed to modify the classical SIR model to simulate the transmission of mutable viruses that can be permanently immunized in small-world networks. Then, the influences of the size, coordination number and disorder parameter of the small-world network on the spread of the epidemic are analyzed in detail. Finally, the influences of mutation cycle and infection rate on epidemic transmission in small-world network are investigated further. The results show that the structure of the small-world network and the virus mutation cycle have an important impact on the spread of the epidemic. For viruses that can be permanently immunized, virus mutation is equivalent to making the immune cycle of human beings from infinite to finite. The dynamical behavior of the modified SIR epidemic model changes from an irregular, low-amplitude evolution at small disorder parameter to a spontaneous state of wide amplitude oscillations at large disorder parameter. Moreover, similar transition can also be found in increasing mutation cycle parameter. The maximum valid variation mutation decreases with the increase of disorder parameter and coordination number, but increase with respect to system size. In addition above, as the infection rate increases, the fraction of the infected increases and then decreases. As the mutation cycle increases, the time-average fraction of the infected and the infection rate corresponding to the maximum time-average fraction of the infected also decrease. As one conclusion, the results could give a deep understanding Pandemic with mutation and permanent immune spreading, from viewpoint of small-world network.