Combined Effects of Climate Change and Bank Stabilization on Shallow Water Habitats of Chinook Salmon

• Published in: Conservation biology Vol. 27; no. 6; pp. 1201 - 1211
• Main Authors: JORGENSEN, JEFFREY C, MCCLURE, MICHELLE M, SHEER, MINDI B, MUNN, NANCY L
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Blackwell Scientific Publications 01.12.2013; Blackwell Publishing Ltd; Wiley Periodicals Inc
• Subjects: Acta de Especies Amenazadas (ESA); Animals; beaches; chinook salmon; Climate Change; consultoría Sección 7; Ecosystem; Endangered & extinct species; endangered species; Endangered Species - legislation & jurisprudence; endangered species act; escollera; estabilización de orillas de ríos; Freshwater; Habitats; humans; life history; long term effects; mainstem; managers; Marine conservation; mouth; Oncorhynchus tshawytscha; Oregon; Population Dynamics; predators; riprap; riverbank stabilization; Rivers; rocks; río Willamette; Salmon; Salmon - physiology; salmón Chinook; section 7 consultation; Shoreline protection; shorelines; Special Section: Incorporating Climate Change into Risk Analyses under the U.S. Endangered Species Act; tallo principal; Willamette river; Oregon; Willamette River; USA, Oregon, Willamette R; río Willamette; Acta de Especies Amenazadas (ESA); escollera; section 7 consultation; riprap; Willamette river; mainstem; riverbank stabilization; tallo principal; endangered species act; salmón Chinook; chinook salmon; consultoría Sección 7; estabilización de orillas de ríos
• ISSN: 0888-8892; 1523-1739
• DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12168

Significant challenges remain in the ability to estimate habitat change under the combined effects of natural variability, climate change, and human activity. We examined anticipated effects on shallow water over low‐sloped beaches to these combined effects in the lower Willamette River, Oregon, an area highly altered by development. A proposal to stabilize some shoreline with large rocks (riprap) would alter shallow water areas, an important habitat for threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and would be subject to U.S. Endangered Species Act‐mandated oversight. In the mainstem, subyearling Chinook salmon appear to preferentially occupy these areas, which fluctuate with river stages. We estimated effects with a geospatial model and projections of future river flows. Recent (1999–2009) median river stages during peak subyearling occupancy (April–June) maximized beach shallow water area in the lower mainstem. Upstream shallow water area was maximized at lower river stages than have occurred recently. Higher river stages in April–June, resulting from increased flows predicted for the 2080s, decreased beach shallow water area 17–32%. On the basis of projected 2080s flows, more than 15% of beach shallow water area was displaced by the riprap. Beach shallow water area lost to riprap represented up to 1.6% of the total from the mouth to 12.9 km upstream. Reductions in shallow water area could restrict salmon feeding, resting, and refuge from predators and potentially reduce opportunities for the expression of the full range of life‐history strategies. Although climate change analyses provided useful information, detailed analyses are prohibitive at the project scale for the multitude of small projects reviewed annually. The benefits of our approach to resource managers include a wider geographic context for reviewing similar small projects in concert with climate change, an approach to analyze cumulative effects of similar actions, and estimation of the actions’ long‐term effects. Efectos Combinados del Cambio Climático y la Estabilización de Bordes de Ríos Hábitats de Aguas Poco Profundas del Salmón Chinook