Comparison of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 2021 versus 2020 in Italy: surprises and implications [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]

• Published in: F1000 research Vol. 10; p. 964
• Main Authors: Donzelli, Alberto, Alessandria, Marco, Orlando, Luca
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Faculty of 1000 Ltd 2021; F1000 Research Limited; F1000 Research Ltd
• Subjects: Adolescent; Brief Report; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; COVID-19 Vaccines; Hospitalization; Humans; Immunization; Independent sample; Infections; Inoculation; Intensive care; Mutants; Neutrophils; SARS-CoV-2; Software; Standard deviation; Surveillance; Vaccination; Variables; Italy; intensive care admissions; COVID-19 vaccinations; trend of COVID-19 infections; hospitalizations; deaths; effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccinations strategies at the community level
• ISSN: 2046-1402; 2046-1402
• DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.73132.1

Data from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) emphasized by the media indicate that COVID-19 vaccination reduces related infections, hospitalizations and deaths. However, a comparison showed significantly more hospitalizations and intensive care unit accesses in the corresponding months and days in 2021 versus 2020 and no significant differences in deaths. The combination of non-alternative hypotheses may help explain the discrepancy between the results in the entire population and the vaccination's success claimed by the ISS in reducing infections, serious cases and deaths: a bias: counting as unvaccinated also "those vaccinated with 1 dose in the two weeks following the inoculation", and as incompletely vaccinated also "those vaccinated with 2 doses within two weeks of the 2nd inoculation". a systematic error: counting as unvaccinated also "vaccinated with 1 dose in the two weeks following the inoculation", and as incompletely vaccinated also "vaccinated with 2 doses within two weeks of the 2nd inoculation". Many reports show an increase in COVID-19 cases in these time-windows, and related data should be separated levels of protective effectiveness in vaccinated people, often considered stable, actually show signs of progressive reduction over time, which could contribute to reducing the overall population result unvaccinated people show more severe disease than in 2020, supporting also in humans the theory of imperfect vaccines, which offer less resistance to the entry of germs than the resistance later encountered inside the human body. This favors the selection of more resistant and virulent mutants, that can be spread by vaccinated people. This damages first the unvaccinated people, but ultimately the whole community. An open scientific debate is needed to discuss these hypotheses, following the available evidence (as well as to discuss the inconsistent theory of unvaccinated young people as reservoirs of viruses/mutants), to assess the long-term and community impact of different vaccination strategies.