Mathematical models of natural gas consumption

• Published in: Energy conversion and management Vol. 52; no. 3; pp. 1721 - 1727
• Main Authors: Sabo, Kristian, Scitovski, Rudolf, Vazler, Ivan, Zekić-Sušac, Marijana
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.03.2011; Elsevier
• Subjects: Acceptability; Applied sciences; Croatia; Direct power generation; Economic data; Energy; Energy conversion; Energy economics; Exact sciences and technology; Fossil fuels and derived products; Gas; General, economic and professional studies; Least Absolute Deviations; Least Squares; Management; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical model; Mathematical models; Methodology. Modelling; Natural gas; Natural gas consumption; Nonlinearity; Croatia; Natural gas consumption; Mathematical model; Least Squares; Least Absolute Deviations
• ISSN: 0196-8904; 1879-2227
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2010.10.037

In this paper we consider the problem of natural gas consumption hourly forecast on the basis of hourly movement of temperature and natural gas consumption in the preceding period. There are various methods and approaches for solving this problem in the literature. Some mathematical models with linear and nonlinear model functions relating to natural gas consumption forecast with the past natural gas consumption data, temperature data and temperature forecast data are mentioned. The methods are tested on concrete examples referring to temperature and natural gas consumption for the area of the city of Osijek (Croatia) from the beginning of the year 2008. The results show that most acceptable forecast is provided by mathematical models in which natural gas consumption and temperature are related explicitly.