Old health risks in new places? An ecological niche model for I. ricinus tick distribution in Europe under a changing climate

• Published in: Health & place Vol. 30; pp. 70 - 77
• Main Authors: Boeckmann, Melanie, Joyner, T. Andrew
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Amsterdam Elsevier Ltd 01.11.2014; Elsevier
• Subjects: 21st century; Algorithms; Animals; Biological and medical sciences; Climate Change; Climate change adaptation; Diseases; Ecological niche model; Environment. Living conditions; Europe; Health care; Health technology assessment; Humans; Ixodes - growth & development; Ixodes ricinus; Ixodidae; Medical sciences; Miscellaneous; Models, Theoretical; Poland; Public health. Hygiene; Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine; Tick Infestations; Tick-Borne Diseases; Vector-borne diseases; Europe; Poland; Italy; ANE, Baltic Sea; Belarus; Scandinavia; Italy, Alps Mts; Vector-borne diseases; Climate change; Ecological niche model; Climate change adaptation; Tick-borne diseases; Climate; Vector-borne disease; Dynamical climatology; Dicotyledones; Angiospermae; Distribution; Tick-borne disease; Health hazards; Euphorbiaceae; Spermatophyta; Models; Public health; Adaptation; Ricinus
• ISSN: 1353-8292; 1873-2054
• DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2014.08.004

Climate change will likely have impacts on disease vector distribution. Posing a significant health threat in the 21st century, risk of tick-borne diseases may increase with higher annual mean temperatures and changes in precipitation. We modeled the current and future potential distribution of the Ixodes ricinus tick species in Europe. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) was utilized to predict potential distributions of I. ricinus based on current (1990–2010 averages) and future (2040–2060 averages) environmental variables. A ten model best subset was created out of a possible 200 models based on omission and commission criteria. Our results show that under the A2 climate change scenario the potential habitat range for the I. ricinus tick in Europe will expand into higher elevations and latitudes (e.g., Scandinavia, the Baltics, and Belarus), while contracting in other areas (e.g., Alps, Pyrenees, interior Italy, and northwestern Poland). Overall, a potential habitat expansion of 3.8% in all of Europe is possible. Our results may be used to inform climate change adaptation efforts in Europe. •We modeled current and future potential Ixodes ricinus tick distribution in Europe.•Tick habitat range was predicted to expand into higher elevations and latitudes.•Overall, habitats are predicted to expand by 3.8% from their current range.•Results can inform climate change adaptation efforts in Europe.