Avoidable cancers in the Nordic countries—The impact of alcohol consumption

• Published in: European journal of cancer (1990) Vol. 103; pp. 299 - 307
• Main Authors: Andersson, Therese M-L., Engholm, Gerda, Pukkala, Eero, Stenbeck, Magnus, Tryggvadottir, Laufey, Storm, Hans, Weiderpass, Elisabete
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Elsevier Ltd 01.11.2018; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: Alcohol; Alcohol use; Alcohols; Breast cancer; Cancer; Colorectal carcinoma; Computer simulation; Disease prevention; Esophagus; Larynx; Liver; Medicin och hälsovetenskap; Nordic countries; Oral cavity; Pharynx; Population-attributable fraction; Potential impact fraction; Prevent macro-simulation model; Prevention; Squamous cell carcinoma; Prevention; Nordic countries; Alcohol; Population-attributable fraction; Potential impact fraction; Prevent macro-simulation model; Cancer
• ISSN: 0959-8049; 1879-0852; 1879-0852
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2018.03.027

Alcohol consumption is an important and preventable cause of cancer. The aim of this study was to quantify the proportion of the cancer burden in the Nordic countries linked to alcohol and estimate the potential for cancer prevention by changes in alcohol consumption. Using the Prevent macro-simulation model, the number of cancer cases in the Nordic countries over a 30-year period (2016–2045) was modelled for six sites, under different scenarios of changing alcohol consumption, and compared to the projected number of cases if constant alcohol consumption prevailed. The studied sites were colorectal, post-menopausal breast, oral cavity and pharynx, liver, larynx as well as oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. The alcohol consumption was based on the categories of non-drinkers/occasional drinkers, light drinkers (<=12.5 g alcohol per day), moderate drinkers (>12.5 and ≤ 50 g/day) and heavy drinkers (>50 g/day). About 83,000 cancer cases could be avoided in the Nordic countries in a 30-year period if alcohol consumption was entirely eliminated, which is 5.5% of the expected number of cases for the six alcohol-related cancer types. With a 50% reduction in the proportion with moderate alcohol consumption by year 2025, 21,500 cancer cases could be avoided. The number of avoidable cases was highest for post-menopausal breast and colorectal cancer, but the percentage was highest for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. The results from this study can be used to understand the potential impact and significance of primary prevention programmes targeted towards reducing the alcohol consumption in the Nordic countries. •Eliminating alcohol consumption in the Nordic countries could avoid 83,000 cancers in 30 years.•This corresponds to 5.5% of the expected cancers for the six cancer sites causally linked to alcohol.•The number of avoidable cases was highest for breast and colorectal cancer.•Oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma showed the largest percentage of avoidable cancers.