Capture-recapture method for estimating annual incidence of imported dengue, France, 2007-2010

• Published in: Emerging infectious diseases Vol. 19; no. 11; pp. 1740 - 1748
• Main Authors: La Ruche, Guy, Dejour-Salamanca, Dominique, Bernillon, Pascale, Leparc-Goffart, Isabelle, Ledrans, Martine, Armengaud, Alexis, Debruyne, Monique, Denoyel, Gérard-Antoine, Brichler, Ségolène, Ninove, Laetitia, Desprès, Philippe, Gastellu-Etchegorry, Marc
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States U.S. National Center for Infectious Diseases 01.11.2013; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
• Subjects: Adult; Aedes; Analysis; Caribbean Islands; Dengue; Dengue - epidemiology; Dengue - transmission; Dengue Virus - classification; Dengue Virus - genetics; Dengue Virus - immunology; disease notification; Epidemics; Female; France; France - epidemiology; Geography, Medical; Health aspects; Humans; Incidence; Infection; Male; Martinique; Methods; Middle Aged; population surveillance; Public health; Public Health Surveillance; Travel; viruses; Young Adult; France; Martinique; Caribbean Islands; Aedes mosquitoes; viruses; epidemiologic methods; population surveillance; disease notification; France; travel medicine; dengue; incidence
• ISSN: 1080-6040; 1080-6059
• DOI: 10.3201/eid1911.120624

Imported dengue cases pose the public health risk for local circulation in European areas, especially southeast France, where the Aedes mosquito is established. Using a capture-recapture method with Chao's estimator, we estimated the annual incidence of dengue fever and the completeness of existing mandatory notification and laboratory network surveillance systems. During 2007-2010, >8,300 cases with laboratory evidence of recent dengue infection were diagnosed. Of these cases, 4,500 occurred in 2010, coinciding with intense epidemics in the French West Indies. Over this 4-year period, 327 cases occurred in southeast France during the vector activity period. Of these, 234 cases occurred in 2010, most of them potentially viremic. Completeness of the mandatory notification and laboratory network systems were ≈10% and 40%, respectively, but higher in southeast areas during May-November (32% and 69%, respectively). Dengue surveillance systems in France provide complementary information that is essential to the implementation of control measures.