The golden rule of forecasting: Objections, refinements, and enhancements

In providing a “golden rule” for forecasting, Armstrong, Green, and Graefe (this issue) raise aspirations that reliable forecasting is possible. They advocate a conservative approach that mainly involves extrapolating from the present. We comment on three issues that relate to their proposed Golden...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inJournal of business research Vol. 68; no. 8; pp. 1702 - 1704
Main Authors Soyer, Emre, Hogarth, Robin M.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published New York Elsevier Inc 01.08.2015
Elsevier Sequoia S.A
Subjects
Conservative
Economic forecasts
Economic theory
Forecasting techniques
Golden Rule
Objectivity
Reliability
Scenario
Simulation
Studies
Simulation
Golden Rule
Conservative
Scenario
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Summary:In providing a “golden rule” for forecasting, Armstrong, Green, and Graefe (this issue) raise aspirations that reliable forecasting is possible. They advocate a conservative approach that mainly involves extrapolating from the present. We comment on three issues that relate to their proposed Golden Rule: its scope of application, the importance of highly improbable events, and the challenges of communicating forecasts.
Bibliography:ObjectType-Article-1
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ISSN:0148-2963
1873-7978
DOI:10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.029