Integrating quantitative PCR and Bayesian statistics in quantifying human adenoviruses in small volumes of source water

• Published in: The Science of the total environment Vol. 470-471; pp. 255 - 262
• Main Authors: Wu, Jianyong, Gronewold, Andrew D., Rodriguez, Roberto A., Stewart, Jill R., Sobsey, Mark D.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier B.V 01.02.2014
• Subjects: Adenoviridae; Adenoviruses, Human - isolation & purification; Bayes Theorem; Bayesian statistics; Bayesian theory; drinking; Drinking Water - virology; Environmental Monitoring - methods; Evaporation method; Fresh Water - virology; Human adenoviruses; humans; pathogens; Polymerase Chain Reaction; public health; Quantitative PCR; quantitative polymerase chain reaction; risk; Source water; transportation; uncertainty; Uncertainty analysis; Water Microbiology; Water Supply; water treatment; Evaporation method; Source water; Human adenoviruses; Bayesian statistics; Uncertainty analysis; Quantitative PCR
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.09.026

Rapid quantification of viral pathogens in drinking and recreational water can help reduce waterborne disease risks. For this purpose, samples in small volume (e.g. 1L) are favored because of the convenience of collection, transportation and processing. However, the results of viral analysis are often subject to uncertainty. To overcome this limitation, we propose an approach that integrates Bayesian statistics, efficient concentration methods, and quantitative PCR (qPCR) to quantify viral pathogens in water. Using this approach, we quantified human adenoviruses (HAdVs) in eighteen samples of source water collected from six drinking water treatment plants. HAdVs were found in seven samples. In the other eleven samples, HAdVs were not detected by qPCR, but might have existed based on Bayesian inference. Our integrated approach that quantifies uncertainty provides a better understanding than conventional assessments of potential risks to public health, particularly in cases when pathogens may present a threat but cannot be detected by traditional methods. •Quantifying viral pathogens in water is subject to uncertainty that can be expressed using Bayesian statistics.•An integrated approach is proposed to quantify viral pathogens from 1L of a water sample.•Human adenoviruses from 18 source water samples were quantified with probability distributions.•This approach provides an improved estimation of viral pathogens from small volumes of water.