Associations of hurricane exposure and forecasting with impaired birth outcomes

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 13; no. 1; p. 6746
• Main Authors: Hochard, Jacob, Li, Yuanhao, Abashidze, Nino
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 08.11.2022; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 692/499; 692/700/478; 706/689/159; 706/689/2788; Birth; Births; Cyclonic Storms; Disasters; Exposure; Female; Forecasting; Humanities and Social Sciences; Humans; Hurricanes; Impact damage; Infant, Newborn; multidisciplinary; Observational studies; Pregnancy; Premature birth; Premature Birth - epidemiology; Risk Factors; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Storm damage; Storms; Warning systems
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33865-x

Early forecasts give people in a storm’s path time to prepare. Less is known about the cost to society when forecasts are incorrect. In this observational study, we examine over 700,000 births in the path of Hurricane Irene and find exposure was associated with impaired birth outcomes. Additional warning time was associated with decreased preterm birth rates for women who experienced intense storm exposures documenting a benefit of avoiding a type II forecasting error. A larger share of this at-risk population experienced a type I forecasting error where severe physical storm impacts were anticipated but not experienced. Disaster anticipation disrupted healthcare services by delaying and canceling prenatal care, which may contribute to storm-impacted birth outcomes. Recognizing storm damages depend on human responses to predicted storm paths is critical to supporting the next generation’s developmental potential with judicious forecasts that ensure public warning systems mitigate rather than exacerbate climate damages. Early forecasts give people in a storm’s path time to prepare, but less is known about the cost to society when forecasts are incorrect. In this observational study, the authors examine over 700,000 births in the path of Hurricane Irene and find exposure was associated with impaired birth outcomes.