Predictability of Wintertime Stratospheric Circulation Examined Using a Nonstationary Fluctuation–Dissipation Relation

The dynamics and predictability of stratospheric low-frequency variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter are examined using a two-dimensional (2D) phase space spanned by the leading empirical orthogonal functions of the 10-hPa geopotential height field. The 2D phase space represents the variatio...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inJournal of the atmospheric sciences Vol. 72; no. 2; pp. 774 - 786
Main Authors Inatsu, Masaru, Nakano, Naoto, Kusuoka, Seiichiro, Mukougawa, Hitoshi
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Boston American Meteorological Society 01.02.2015
Subjects
Climate
Data sampling
Datasets
Diffusion
Dissipation
Drift
Drift estimation
Dynamic height
Empirical orthogonal functions
Ensemble forecasting
Fluctuation
General circulation models
Geopotential
Geopotential height
Linearization
Mathematical analysis
Meteorology
Northern Hemisphere
Orthogonal functions
Ozone
Spreads
Stochasticity
Stratosphere
Stratospheric circulation
Stratospheric warming
Tensors
Two dimensional
Vectors (mathematics)
Vortices
Wavelengths
Weather forecasting
Winter circulation
Japan
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Summary:The dynamics and predictability of stratospheric low-frequency variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter are examined using a two-dimensional (2D) phase space spanned by the leading empirical orthogonal functions of the 10-hPa geopotential height field. The 2D phase space represents the variation of the strength of the polar night jet and the amplitude of zonal wavenumber-1 eddy components. A linearized nonstationary fluctuation-dissipation relation (NFDR) is developed based on the deterministic drift vector and the stochastic diffusion tensor estimated from a reanalysis dataset. The authors find that the solution of the linearized NFDR with an optimal data sampling time interval for estimating the drift vector and the diffusion tensor provides a good representation in the phase space of the inhomogeneous distribution of the forecast spread of the operational ensemble forecast conducted by the Japan Meteorological Agency. In particular, the linearized NFDR captures the local maximum of the forecast spread during the onset period of the major stratospheric sudden warming events.
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ISSN:0022-4928
1520-0469
DOI:10.1175/JAS-D-14-0088.1