Extending production-theoretical decomposition analysis to environmentally sensitive growth: Case study of Belt and Road Initiative countries

• Published in: Technological forecasting & social change Vol. 161; p. 120289
• Main Authors: Zhao, Zhibo, Shi, Xunpeng, Zhao, Lingdi, Zhang, Jinggu
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Elsevier Inc 01.12.2020; Elsevier B.V; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: Analysis; Belt and road initiative countries; Best practice; Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Case studies; Decomposition; Driving factors; Economic development; Environmental Kuznets curve; Environmentally sensitive growth; Gross domestic product; Industrial efficiency; Modified production-theoretical decomposition; Productivity; Sustainable development; Technology; Environmentally sensitive growth; DEA; IDA; Driving factors; CIS; PDA; Modified production-theoretical decomposition; DMU; Abbreviations: AA; SDA; BRI; ASEAN; Belt and road initiative countries; EKC; DA
• ISSN: 0040-1625; 1873-5509
• DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120289

•We decompose environmentally sensitive growth into three component effects and seven drivers.•Potential output change is the most significant component effect.•The potential GDP change factor is greater than the carbon dioxide emissions change factor.•Energy change contributes the most among the input change effects.•Productivity growth effect is not a significant driver for environmentally sensitive growth. Exploring the driving factors of environmentally sensitive growth in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries is crucial to the green BRI and realizing sustainable development goals. This study extends the production-theoretical decomposition analysis framework to environmentally sensitive growth. Using data from 52 BRI countries from 1992 to 2014, the proposed approach decomposes environmentally sensitive growth change into productivity growth effect, input change effect, and potential output change effect. We find that the potential output change effect plays the most significant role, followed by the input change effect, while the productivity growth effect does not contribute significantly to environmentally sensitive growth. These three effects are further decomposed into seven driving factors. Within the potential output change effect, the contribution of the potential GDP change factor is greater than the contribution of the carbon dioxide emissions change factor. The energy change factor contributes most to environmentally sensitive growth among the input change effects. Additionally, the technical efficiency change factor is more significant for the productivity growth effect than the best practice gap change factor. The findings suggest that advocating low-carbon infrastructure investment, exerting the spillover effect of technology, and adopting a low carbon development national strategy are policies toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.