Greenhouse-gas forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and related worldwide sea-level change

• Published in: Climate dynamics Vol. 60; no. 7-8; pp. 2003 - 2039
• Main Authors: Couldrey, Matthew P., Gregory, Jonathan M., Dong, Xiao, Garuba, Oluwayemi, Haak, Helmuth, Hu, Aixue, Hurlin, William J., Jin, Jiangbo, Jungclaus, Johann, Köhl, Armin, Liu, Hailong, Ojha, Sayantani, Saenko, Oleg A., Savita, Abhishek, Suzuki, Tatsuo, Yu, Zipeng, Zanna, Laure
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.04.2023; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Anthropogenic climate changes; Anthropogenic factors; Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC); Atmospheric circulation; Atmospheric models; Carbon dioxide; Climate change; Climatic changes; Climatology; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Enthalpy; Environmental aspects; Fluctuations; Forecasts and trends; Freshwater; General circulation models; Geophysics/Geodesy; Heat; Heat content; Heat flux; Heat transfer; Influence; Inland water environment; Momentum; Momentum flux; Momentum transfer; Ocean surface; Ocean-atmosphere interaction; Oceanic general circulation model; Oceanography; Oceans; Perturbation; Salinity; Sea level; Sea level changes; Thermohaline circulation; Vertical distribution; United Kingdom; Southern Ocean; Climate modelling; AMOC; Sea-level rise
• ISSN: 0930-7575; 1432-0894
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06386-y

The effect of anthropogenic climate change in the ocean is challenging to project because atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond differently to forcing. This study focuses on changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean heat content ( Δ OHC), and the spatial pattern of ocean dynamic sea level ( Δ ζ ). We analyse experiments following the FAFMIP protocol, in which AOGCMs are forced at the ocean surface with standardised heat, freshwater and momentum flux perturbations, typical of those produced by doubling CO 2 . Using two new heat-flux-forced experiments, we find that the AMOC weakening is mainly caused by and linearly related to the North Atlantic heat flux perturbation, and further weakened by a positive coupled heat flux feedback. The quantitative relationships are model-dependent, but few models show significant AMOC change due to freshwater or momentum forcing, or to heat flux forcing outside the North Atlantic. AMOC decline causes warming at the South Atlantic-Southern Ocean interface. It does not strongly affect the global-mean vertical distribution of Δ OHC, which is dominated by the Southern Ocean. AMOC decline strongly affects Δ ζ in the North Atlantic, with smaller effects in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. The ensemble-mean Δ ζ and Δ OHC patterns are mostly attributable to the heat added by the flux perturbation, with smaller effects from ocean heat and salinity redistribution. The ensemble spread, on the other hand, is largely due to redistribution, with pronounced disagreement among the AOGCMs.