Biosurveillance of ED visits for gastroenteritis

• Published in: The American journal of emergency medicine Vol. 25; no. 5; pp. 535 - 539
• Main Authors: Rodriguez, Vashun A., MD, MPH, Silverman, Michael E., MD, Cochrane, Dennis G., MD, Eskin, Barnet, MD, PhD, Ohman-Strickland, Pamela, PhD, Rothman, Jonathan, MBA, R. Allegra, John, MD, PhD
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Philadelphia, PA Elsevier Inc 01.06.2007; Elsevier; Elsevier Limited
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; Age Factors; Anesthesia. Intensive care medicine. Transfusions. Cell therapy and gene therapy; Biological and medical sciences; Bioterrorism; Child; Child, Preschool; Disease Outbreaks; Economic models; Emergency; Emergency medical care; Emergency Service, Hospital - utilization; Female; Gastroenteritis - epidemiology; General aspects; Human viral diseases; Humans; Incidence; Infant; Infectious diseases; Intensive care medicine; Male; Medical sciences; New Jersey - epidemiology; Older people; Planification. Prevention (methods). Intervention. Evaluation; Population Surveillance; Public health. Hygiene; Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine; Regression Analysis; Retrospective Studies; Seasons; Studies; Time series; Viral diseases; Viral diseases with cutaneous or mucosal lesions and viral diseases of the eye; New Jersey; Digestive diseases; Intestinal disease; Intensive care; Gastroenteritis; Resuscitation; Gastric disease
• ISSN: 0735-6757; 1532-8171
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ajem.2006.09.017

Abstract Objective Our objective was to characterize emergency department (ED) visits for gastroenteritis by season and age and develop a predictive model. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients seen in 19 EDs from 1988 to 2002. We examined differences in the annual peaks of younger (<60 months) and older (>60 months) age groups and developed a time series regression model. Results Of the 5 182 019 total visits, 88 504 were for gastroenteritis. On average, the percentage of gastroenteritis on the peak days was higher in the younger (26%) than older group (4%), and the peaks for the younger group occurred 36 days after those for the older group. Conclusion Emergency department visits for gastroenteritis vary greatly by season and age. Our time series predictive model was a good fit to actual incidence patterns. These variations should be accounted for in designing a system to detect bioterrorism and for surveillance of naturally occurring epidemics.