Climate change and temperature rise: Implications on food- and water-borne diseases

• Published in: The Science of the total environment Vol. 437; pp. 15 - 21
• Main Authors: El-Fadel, Mutasem, Ghanimeh, Sophia, Maroun, Rania, Alameddine, Ibrahim
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier B.V 15.10.2012; Elsevier
• Subjects: Adaptation; Biological and medical sciences; Climate change; Computer simulation; Computer Simulation - statistics & numerical data; Disease Outbreaks - statistics & numerical data; Drinking Water - microbiology; Economics; Epidemiology. Vaccinations; Evolution; Female; Food- and water-borne diseases; Foodborne Diseases - epidemiology; Fossil fuels; General aspects; Global Warming - statistics & numerical data; Humans; Illnesses; Incidence; Infectious diseases; Lebanon; Male; Medical sciences; Models, Biological; Morbidity; Public health; Thresholds; Water Microbiology; Lebanon; Asia; Food- and water-borne diseases; Climate change; Public health; Adaptation; Human; Temperature; Dynamical climatology; Infection; Health and environment; Food safety; Biological contamination; Water-borne disease; Hygiene; Food
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.07.041

This study attempts to quantify climate-induced increases in morbidity rates associated with food- and water-borne illnesses in the context of an urban coastal city, taking Beirut-Lebanon as a study area. A Poisson generalized linear model was developed to assess the impacts of temperature on the morbidity rate. The model was used with four climatic scenarios to simulate a broad spectrum of driving forces and potential social, economic and technologic evolutions. The correlation established in this study exhibits a decrease in the number of illnesses with increasing temperature until reaching a threshold of 19.2°C, beyond which the number of morbidity cases increases with temperature. By 2050, the results show a substantial increase in food- and water-borne related morbidity of 16 to 28% that can reach up to 42% by the end of the century under A1FI (fossil fuel intensive development) or can be reversed to ~0% under B1 (lowest emissions trajectory), highlighting the need for early mitigation and adaptation measures. ► Prediction of climate-induced increase in food- and water-borne morbidity in a semi-arid Eastern Mediterranean coastal city. ► Number of disease cases increases with temperature beyond a threshold of 19.2°C. ► Expected increase in morbidity of 16 to 28% by year 2050. ► Up to 42% increase in morbidity anticipated by the end of the century.