The effect of illicit financial flows on time to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal in Sub-Saharan Africa: a quantitative analysis

• Published in: Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine Vol. 107; no. 4; pp. 148 - 156
• Main Authors: O'Hare, Bernadette, Makuta, Innocent, Bar-Zeev, Naor, Chiwaula, Levison, Cobham, Alex
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London, England SAGE Publications 01.04.2014
• Subjects: Africa South of the Sahara - epidemiology; Child Mortality; Child, Preschool; Crime - economics; Developing Countries - economics; Female; Global Health - economics; Goals; Gross Domestic Product; Humans; Income; Infant; Male; Africa South of the Sahara; Africa; child mortality; illicit financial flows; millennium development goals
• ISSN: 0141-0768; 1758-1095
• DOI: 10.1177/0141076813514575

Objectives This paper sets out to estimate the cost of illicit financial flows (IFF) in terms of the amount of time it could take to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG) in 34 African countries. Design We have calculated the percentage increase in gross domestic product (GDP) if IFFs were curtailed using IFF/GDP ratios. We applied the income (GDP) elasticity of child mortality to the increase in GDP to estimate the reduction in time to reach the fourth MDG in 34 African countries. Participants children aged under five years. Settings 34 countries in SSA. Main outcome measures Reduction in time to reach the first indicator of the fourth MDG, under-five mortality rate in the absence of IFF. Results We found that in the 34 SSA countries, six countries will achieve their fourth MDG target at the current rates of decline. In the absence of IFF, 16 countries would reach their fourth MDG target by 2015 and there would be large reductions for all other countries. Conclusions This drain on development is facilitated by financial secrecy in other jurisdictions. Rich and poor countries alike must stem the haemorrhage of IFF by taking decisive steps towards improving financial transparency.