World Oil Depletion Models: Price effects compared with strategic or technological interventions

• Published in: Technological forecasting & social change Vol. 74; no. 4; pp. 452 - 469
• Main Authors: Guseo, R., Dalla Valle, A., Guidolin, M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Inc 01.05.2007
• Subjects: ARMAX; Depletion times; Diffusion; Diffusion process; Economics; Generalized Bass model; Hierarchy; Historical account; Intervention; life cycle analysis; Natural gas; Nonlinear models; Oil; Oil peak; Oil price elasticity; Petroleum; Q1; Q3; social change; Technological Change; Technology; USA, Texas, Dallas; USA, Texas, Dallas; Oil peak; Nonlinear models; Diffusion process; ARMAX; Generalized Bass model; Depletion times; Oil price elasticity
• ISSN: 0040-1625; 1873-5509
• DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2006.01.004

World oil depletion, including natural gas liquids, was modelled in the past by many authors. Recently, Guseo and Dalla Valle have introduced and Guidolin has applied a new approach following perturbed life-cycle diffusion models. Here we examine joint effects of economic and strategic or technological interventions using a Generalized Bass Model (GBM). Statistical analysis takes into account three different hierarchical levels: natural diffusion, long memory interventions and stochastic components. The main results confirm the statistical significance of historical 1970s shocks and highlight a strong long memory effect due to an increase in oil production after World War II. The estimated peak-date, 2007, and the 90% depletion time, 2019, are determined under an equilibrium intervention hypothesis.