Repurposing an energy system optimization model for seasonal power generation planning

• Published in: Energy (Oxford) Vol. 181; no. C; pp. 1321 - 1330
• Main Authors: de Queiroz, A.R., Mulcahy, D., Sankarasubramanian, A., Deane, J.P., Mahinthakumar, G., Lu, N., DeCarolis, J.F.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 15.08.2019; Elsevier BV; Elsevier
• Subjects: Climate models; Electric power demand; Electricity; Electricity consumption; Electricity generation; Electricity pricing; Energy; Energy system optimization; Forecasting; Mathematical programming; Operating costs; Optimization models; Power generation planning; Seasonal demand forecasts; Unit commitment; Seasonal demand forecasts; Power generation planning; Energy system optimization; Unit commitment; Mathematical programming
• ISSN: 0360-5442; 1873-6785
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.05.126

Seasonal climate variations affect electricity demand, which in turn affects month-to-month electricity planning and operations. Electricity system planning at the monthly timescale can be improved by adapting climate forecasts to estimate electricity demand and utilizing energy models to estimate monthly electricity generation and associated operational costs. The objective of this paper is to develop and test a computationally efficient model that can support seasonal planning while preserving key aspects of system operation over hourly and daily timeframes. To do so, an energy system optimization model is repurposed for seasonal planning using features drawn from a unit commitment model. Different scenarios utilizing a well-known test system are used to evaluate the errors associated with both the repurposed energy system model and an imperfect load forecast. The results show that the energy system optimization model using an imperfect load forecast produces differences in monthly cost and generation levels that are less than 2% compared with a unit commitment model using a perfect load forecast. The enhanced energy system optimization model can be solved approximately 100 times faster than the unit commitment model, making it a suitable tool for future work aimed at evaluating seasonal electricity generation and demand under uncertainty. •An energy system optimization model is repurposed for seasonal planning.•Results are compared with a unit commitment model under two demand forecasts.•The enhanced energy system model can generate results nearly 100 times faster.•This model performance makes it possible to do seasonal planning under uncertainty.