Optimally choosing small ensemble members to produce robust climate simulations

This study examines the subset climate model ensemble size required to reproduce certain statistical characteristics from a full ensemble. The ensemble characteristics examined are the root mean square error, the ensemble mean and standard deviation. Subset ensembles are created using measures that...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published inEnvironmental research letters Vol. 8; no. 4; pp. 44050 - 4
Main Authors Evans, Jason P, Ji, Fei, Abramowitz, Gab, Ekström, Marie
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Bristol IOP Publishing 01.12.2013
Subjects
climate model
Climate models
ensemble
model independence
Simulation
Online AccessGet full text

Cover

More Information
Summary:This study examines the subset climate model ensemble size required to reproduce certain statistical characteristics from a full ensemble. The ensemble characteristics examined are the root mean square error, the ensemble mean and standard deviation. Subset ensembles are created using measures that consider the simulation performance alone or include a measure of simulation independence relative to other ensemble members. It is found that the independence measure is able to identify smaller subset ensembles that retain the desired full ensemble characteristics than either of the performance based measures. It is suggested that model independence be considered when choosing ensemble subsets or creating new ensembles.
Bibliography:ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 23
ISSN:1748-9326
1748-9326
DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044050