Assessing the transmission potential of mpox in East Asia during 2022-2023: A focus on Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea

• Published in: International journal of infectious diseases Vol. 138; pp. 110 - 112
• Main Authors: Kim, Minjin, Shim, Eunha
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Canada Elsevier Ltd 01.01.2024; Elsevier
• Subjects: China; Japan; Mpox; Reproduction number; South Korea; Taiwan; Mpox; South Korea; Reproduction number; China; Japan; Taiwan
• ISSN: 1201-9712; 1878-3511; 1878-3511
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2023.11.015

•Re-emergence of mpox since May 2022 has posed significant challenges in East Asia.•The estimated reproduction number (Rt) in early phase for Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea exceeded 1.00.•Most recent, Rt estimates for Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea were below 0.5.•Maintaining effective management is essential to reduce further mpox spread. This study aims to estimate the transmission potential of mpox in East Asia, focusing on the hardest hit nations: Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea. We utilized six phenomenological dynamic growth models to fit the case incidence during the initial 30 epidemic days. The best-fit model was selected to calculate the reproduction number (Rt). Additionally, we used the latest case data and a Bayesian framework to compute the instantaneous effective Rt by applying the Cori et al. method. During the early phase, China demonstrated the highest estimated Rt of 2.89 (95% CI: 1.44-3.33); followed by South Korea, 2.18 (95% CI: 0.96-3.57); Japan, 1.73 (95% CI: 0.66-3.94); and Taiwan, 1.36 (95% CI: 0.71-3.30). However, by June 30, 2023, estimated Rt dropped below 1.00 in all countries: China at 0.05 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.02-0.10), Japan at 0.32 (95% CrI: 0.15-0.59), South Korea at 0.23 (95% CrI: 0.11-0.42), and Taiwan at 0.41 (95% CrI: 0.31-0.53), indicating the potential decline of the outbreak. Our analysis shows effective containment by each country. It is crucial to sustain effective management to ensure the ultimate eradication of the outbreak.