Predictive analysis of COVID-19 eradication with vaccination in India, Brazil, and U.S.A

• Published in: Infection, genetics and evolution Vol. 92; p. 104834
• Main Authors: Chaturvedi, Deepa, Chakravarty, U.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier B.V 01.08.2021
• Subjects: Brazil - epidemiology; COVID-19; COVID-19 - epidemiology; COVID-19 - prevention & control; COVID-19 Vaccines - immunology; Disease Eradication - statistics & numerical data; Humans; Immunology; India - epidemiology; Models, Biological; Numerical and analytical modeling of epidemic; Reproduction number; Research Paper; SARS-CoV-2; SIR model; United States - epidemiology; Vaccination; Vaccination - statistics & numerical data; Brazil; United States; India; COVID-19; Numerical and analytical modeling of epidemic; Immunology; Reproduction number; SIR model; Vaccination
• ISSN: 1567-1348; 1567-7257
• DOI: 10.1016/j.meegid.2021.104834

The most important question and concern in these circumstances of COVID-19 epidemic outspread is when will the pandemic end? Vaccination is the only solution to restore life to normalcy in the fastest and safest possible manner. Therefore, we have carried out a predictive analysis for realistic timescale estimates for overcoming the epidemic considering vaccination rate effect on the dynamics of COVID-19 control. In particular we discuss the worst affected large countries like India, Brazil and USA for estimating effect of vaccination rate in expediting the end of the COVID-19 epidemic. We analytically simulated the dynamic evolution of active cases of these countries in the last nine months using the modified SIR model and then included the effect of vaccination to forecast the proliferation dynamics. We hence obtained the transmission parameters, the variation in the reproduction numbers and the impact of the different values of the vaccination shots in the expected curves of active cases in the coming times to predicted the timescales of the end of the epidemic. •Active cases are fitted with more than one sets of transmission parameter.•Effective reproduction number (tR) reduces at the faster rate for higher values of effective infection transmission parameter (c).•The slope of effective reproduction number depends on the promptness response parameter (m).•Expected effective reproduction term (tR) is less than 1 for Brazil, USA, and India.•The predicted time scale of COVID-19 is shown for different values of the vaccination shots in the expected curves of active cases.