The impact of middle. Eastern methanol exports to Western Europe

• Published in: Energy policy Vol. 14; no. 1; pp. 24 - 34
• Main Author: FAHY, J. C
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Elsevier 01.02.1986; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Series: Energy Policy
• Subjects: Applied sciences; Commerce; Economic data; Economic impact; Energy; Energy economics; Exact sciences and technology; Export-import trade; Exports; Forecasts; Fossil fuels and derived products; General, economic and professional studies; Middle East; Petrochemicals; Petrochemicals industry; Petroleum products; Power resources; Statistical analysis; Supply & demand; Supply and demand; Trends; Western Europe; Wood alcohol; Middle East; Arab countries; Europe; EEC; Import; Asia; Energy economy; Production; Influence; Forecasting; Middle east; Methanol
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/0301-4215(86)90086-8

An attempt is made to forecast trends in the Western European methanol market so as to assess the impact of Middle Eastern exports to 1990. Forecasts for total methanol demand are divided into 2 components: traditional (mostly chemical) demand and new demand. Methanol as a fuel source seems the most promising prospect for future demand growth. Analysis indicates that European methanol demand is likely to be strong enough by the early 1990s to provide good export prospects for new suppliers. The projected level of demand in 1990 is 6.5 million tons. The market over the next few years will be in a period of transition characterized by oversupply and weak prices, but there is unlikely to be any justification for European protection against imports beyond 1990. The European Economic Community's current tariff on methanol is not high enough to displace lower cost Arabian Gulf exports from the market; therefore, protectionist demands probably will center on quantitative import restrictions.