Historical Evaluation and Future Prediction of Eastern North American and Western Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones in the CMIP5 Models during the Cool Season

• Published in: Journal of climate Vol. 26; no. 18; pp. 6882 - 6903
• Main Authors: Colle, Brian A., Zhang, Zhenhai, Lombardo, Kelly A., Chang, Edmund, Liu, Ping, Zhang, Minghua
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Boston, MA American Meteorological Society 01.09.2013
• Subjects: Algorithms; Atmospheric models; Baroclinic mode; Baroclinity; Climate; Climate change; Climate models; Climate system; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Coastal environments; Coasts; Colle; Cool season; Cyclogenesis; Cyclone tracks; Cyclones; Density; Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Extratropical cyclones; Floods; Global climate models; Growth rate; Historical periods; Intercomparison; Marine; Mathematical models; Meteorology; Modeling; Modelling; Ocean currents; Precipitation; Regions; Sea level; Sea level pressure; Spatial discrimination; Spatial models; Spatial resolution; SPECIAL North America in CMIP5 Models COLLECTION; Storm tracks; Storms; Storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms; Tidal waves; Tracking; West Atlantic; Atlantic Ocean; United States > US; North America; AN, North Atlantic; USA; Performance evaluation; Multimodel; Coupled model; Extratropical cyclone; Century 21st; General circulation models; Climate models; digital simulation; North America; Climate prediction; Hindcast; Severe weather; climate change
• ISSN: 0894-8755; 1520-0442
• DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00498.1

Extratropical cyclone track density, genesis frequency, deepening rate, and maximum intensity distributions over eastern North America and the western North Atlantic were analyzed for 15 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the historical period (1979–2004) and three future periods (2009–38, 2039–68, and 2069–98). The cyclones were identified using an automated tracking algorithm applied to sea level pressure every 6 h. The CMIP5 results for the historical period were evaluated using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The CMIP5 models were ranked given their track density, intensity, and overall performance for the historical period. It was found that six of the top seven CMIP5 models with the highest spatial resolution were ranked the best overall. These models had less underprediction of cyclone track density, more realistic distribution of intense cyclones along the U.S. East Coast, and more realistic cyclogenesis and deepening rates. The best seven models were used to determine projected future changes in cyclones, which included a 10%–30% decrease in cyclone track density and weakening of cyclones over the western Atlantic storm track, while in contrast there is a 10%–20% increase in cyclone track density over the eastern United States, including 10%–40% more intense (<980 hPa) cyclones and 20%–40% more rapid deepening rates just inland of the U.S. East Coast. Some of the reasons for these CMIP5 model differences were explored for the selected models based on model generated Eady growth rate, upper-level jet, surface baroclinicity, and precipitation.