Potential impact of climate change on durum wheat cropping in Tunisia

• Published in: Climatic change Vol. 96; no. 4; pp. 549 - 564
• Main Authors: Lhomme, J. P, Mougou, R, Mansour, M
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands 01.10.2009; Springer Netherlands; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Agricultural and forest climatology and meteorology. Irrigation. Drainage; Agricultural and forest meteorology; Agricultural production; Agriculture; Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions; Arid zones; Atmospheric models; Atmospheric Sciences; Biological and medical sciences; Cereal crops; Cereals; Climate change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Climate effects; Climatic models of plant production; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Crop yield; Crops; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Environmental impact; Environmental monitoring; Evapotranspiration; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General agronomy. Plant production; General circulation models; Generalities. Techniques. Climatology. Meteorology. Climatic models of plant production; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Meteorology; Pasta; Precipitation; Radiation; Rain; Simulation; Temperature; Triticum aestivum; Water balance; Water deficit; Wheat; Tunisia; Africa; FAO; Durum Wheat; Sowing Date; Reference Evapotranspiration; Crop Water; Future Scenario; Plant production; Monocotyledones; Century 21st; Triticum durum; Water deficit; climate warming; Agroclimatology; Forecast model; Cereal crop; Dynamical climatology; Climate change; Gramineae; Angiospermae; Global change; Spermatophyta; Agriculture; Yield
• ISSN: 0165-0009; 1573-1480
• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9571-9

The potential effect of climate change on durum wheat in Tunisia is assessed using a simple crop simulation model and a climate projection for the 2071-2100 period, obtained from the Météo-France ARPEGE-Climate atmospheric model run under the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) scenario A1B. In the process-oriented crop model, phenology is estimated through thermal time. Water balance is calculated on a daily basis by means of a simple modelling of actual evapotranspiration involving reference evapotranspiration, crop coefficients and some basic soil characteristics. The impact of crop water deficit on yield is accounted for through the linear crop-water production function developed by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). Two stations are chosen to study the climate change effect. They are representative of the main areas where cereals are grown in Tunisia: Jendouba in the northern region and Kairouan in the central region. In the future scenario, temperature systematically increases, whereas precipitation increases or decreases depending on the location and the period of the year. Mean annual precipitation declines in Jendouba and raises in Kairouan. Under climate change, the water conditions needed for sowing occur earlier and cycle lengths are reduced in both locations. Crop water deficit and the corresponding deficit in crop yield happen to be slightly lower in Kairouan; conversely, they become higher in Jendouba.