Modelling the Reduction in Cancer Incidence After Variations in the Prevalence of Tobacco Consumption in Colombia in the Period 2016-2050

• Published in: Cancer control Vol. 29; p. 10732748221121390
• Main Authors: Perdomo, Sandra, López, Julián, Torres-Ibargüen, Miguel Zamir, Puerto-Jiménez, Devi Nereida, de Vries, Esther
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Los Angeles, CA SAGE Publications 01.08.2022; Sage Publications Ltd; SAGE Publishing
• Subjects: Cancer; Cervix; Colorectal carcinoma; Control programs; Liver cancer; Original; Smoking; Taxation; Tobacco; Tobacco smoking; Colombia; prevalence; model; cancer prevention; tobacco control; burden
• ISSN: 1073-2748; 1526-2359; 1073-2748
• DOI: 10.1177/10732748221121390

Objective To evaluate the potential impact of tobacco reduction on future cancer incidence in Colombia Introduction Colombia has implemented multiple actions that led to reducing smoking prevalence in recent years. However, the numbers of cancer cases and deaths associated with smoking exposure remain high highlighting the importance of maintaining efforts to reduce and keep smoking prevalence low. Methods We performed a theoretical modeling exercise, projecting expected changes in the incidence of four cancers between 2016 and 2050 under two simulated scenarios of smoking reduction. Results A cumulative decline of 10% in the prevalence of smoking, a percentage in line with current cigarette taxation policies, will decrease cancer incidence in 2050 by 3.2%, .5%, .2% and .2% of lung, liver, cervical and colorectal cancer incidence, respectively. Complete elimination of tobacco consumption will reduce these by 39.1%, 6.1%, 2.2% and 2.3% respectively, by 2050. Conclusion These results highlight the importance of continuity and reinforcement of current tobacco control programs, including increasing taxation, to further reduce the prevalence of tobacco smoking and reduce cancer cases and deaths in the coming decades.