On the Effectiveness of Security Countermeasures for Critical Infrastructures

• Published in: Risk analysis Vol. 36; no. 4; pp. 711 - 726
• Main Authors: Hausken, Kjell, He, Fei
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.04.2016
• Subjects: Algorithms; Countermeasures; Decision Making; Disaster Planning - methods; Empirical analysis; Financing; Game Theory; government; Humans; Infrastructure; Investment; Linear Models; Mathematical models; Multivariate Analysis; National security; protection; Regression; Resource Allocation; Risk Assessment; Security management; Security Measures; Studies; Terrorism; Terrorism - prevention & control; threat; threat score; Wisconsin; threat score; government; resource allocation; terrorism; protection; threat; Game theory
• ISSN: 0272-4332; 1539-6924; 1539-6924
• DOI: 10.1111/risa.12318

A game‐theoretic model is developed where an infrastructure of N targets is protected against terrorism threats. An original threat score is determined by the terrorist's threat against each target and the government's inherent protection level and original protection. The final threat score is impacted by the government's additional protection. We investigate and verify the effectiveness of countermeasures using empirical data and two methods. The first is to estimate the model's parameter values to minimize the sum of the squared differences between the government's additional resource investment predicted by the model and the empirical data. The second is to develop a multivariate regression model where the final threat score varies approximately linearly relative to the original threat score, sectors, and threat scenarios, and depends nonlinearly on the additional resource investment. The model and method are offered as tools, and as a way of thinking, to determine optimal resource investments across vulnerable targets subject to terrorism threats.