An Event Data Analysis of Third-Party Mediation in the Middle East and Balkans

• Published in: The Journal of conflict resolution Vol. 48; no. 3; pp. 310 - 330
• Main Authors: Schrodt, Philip A., Gerner, Deborah J.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Thousand Oaks, CA Sage Publications 01.06.2004; SAGE Publications; SAGE PUBLICATIONS, INC
• Subjects: Antagonists; Arab Israeli Relations; Armed conflict; Balkan States; Case Studies; Coding; Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Cooperation; Correlation; Correlations; Critical values; Data Analysis; Datasets; Ethnic Relations; European Union; Failure; Foreign policy; Hypotheses; International Conflict; International cooperation; International organizations; International relations; Mediation; Mediators; Middle East; Peace studies; Political Violence; Research design; Sanctions; Southeast Europe; Statistical Analysis; Stimuli; Studies; Third party; Time series; Time series analysis; Variables; Violence; Middle East; Middle East; cross-correlation; mediation; event data; sanctions; Balkans; rewards
• ISSN: 0022-0027; 1552-8766
• DOI: 10.1177/0022002704264137

Event data on the Israel-Lebanon and Israel-Palestinian conflicts in the Levant (1979-1999) and the Serbia-Croatia and Serbia-Bosnia conflicts in the Balkans (1991-1999) are used to test two sets of process-related hypotheses embedded in the theoretical and qualitative literatures on mediation. Cross-correlation analysis is used to examine the time delay in the effects of mediation on the level of violence over time. Results show that these effects vary somewhat, depending on the conflict, and differ substantially, depending on who is conducting the mediation. Whether conflict reduction is most effectively achieved with sanctions or rewards is tested. Results show that a reduction in violence is generally associated with mediation combined with conflictual action directed toward both of the antagonists and combined with cooperative action directed to the weaker antagonist.