Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities

• Published in: Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Vol. 362; no. 6410; pp. 75 - 79
• Main Authors: Dalziel, Benjamin D., Kissler, Stephen, Gog, Julia R., Viboud, Cecile, Bjørnstad, Ottar N., Metcalf, C. Jessica E., Grenfell, Bryan T.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States American Association for the Advancement of Science 05.10.2018
• Subjects: Antigens, Viral - genetics; Antigens, Viral - immunology; Cities - epidemiology; Epidemics; Evolution, Molecular; Humans; Humidity; Incidence; Influenza; Influenza, Human - epidemiology; Influenza, Human - transmission; Influenza, Human - virology; Orthomyxoviridae - genetics; Orthomyxoviridae - immunology; Population Density; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; United States - epidemiology; Urbanization; United States; Cities
• ISSN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.aat6030

Influenza virus strikes communities in northern latitudes during winter, straining health care provision almost to the breaking point. Change in environmental humidity is a key driver, but many other seasonal and social factors contribute. Dalziel et al. obtained a geographical distribution of doctor visits for influenza-like illness for more than 600 U.S. cities (see the Perspective by Wallinga). Some ZIP codes regularly experienced sharply defined peaks of cases, or intense epidemics, and others showed a longer, more diffuse influenza season. The surges tended to occur in smaller cities with less residential density and lower household incomes. Larger, more densely populated cities had more-diffuse epidemics, presumably because of higher rates of personal contact, which makes influenza transmission less subject to climate variation. Science , this issue p. 75 ; see also p. 29 Seasonal flu epidemics are more diffuse in larger cities and more intense in smaller cities, where climate has a stronger influence on transmission. Influenza epidemics vary in intensity from year to year, driven by climatic conditions and by viral antigenic evolution. However, important spatial variation remains unexplained. Here we show predictable differences in influenza incidence among cities, driven by population size and structure. Weekly incidence data from 603 cities in the United States reveal that epidemics in smaller cities are focused on shorter periods of the influenza season, whereas in larger cities, incidence is more diffuse. Base transmission potential estimated from city-level incidence data is positively correlated with population size and with spatiotemporal organization in population density, indicating a milder response to climate forcing in metropolises. This suggests that urban centers incubate critical chains of transmission outside of peak climatic conditions, altering the spatiotemporal geometry of herd immunity.