Modeling and prediction of COVID-19 in Mexico applying mathematical and computational models

• Published in: Chaos, solitons and fractals Vol. 138; p. 109946
• Main Authors: Torrealba-Rodriguez, O., Conde-Gutiérrez, R.A., Hernández-Javier, A.L.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Elsevier Ltd 01.09.2020
• Subjects: COVID-19 modelling; COVID-19 prediction; Gompertz model; inverse Artificial Neural Network model; Logistic model; Gompertz model; Logistic model; inverse Artificial Neural Network model; COVID-19 modelling; COVID-19 prediction
• ISSN: 0960-0779; 1873-2887; 0960-0779
• DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109946

•Mathematical and computational models are used to predict cases of COVID-19 in Mexico.•The data is obtained through the Daily Technical Report issued by the Mexican Ministry of Health.•Gompertz, Logistic and Artificial Neural Network perform the modeling of the cases confirmed by COVID-19 with an R2>0.999.•Logistic, Gompertz and inverse Artificial Neural Network predicts the maximum number of new daily cases on May 8th, June 25th and May12th, 2020, respectively.•The Gompertz, Logistic and inverse Artificial Neural Network models predict different number of cases of COVID-19 at the end of the epidemic. This work presents the modeling and prediction of cases of COVID-19 infection in Mexico through mathematical and computational models using only the confirmed cases provided by the daily technical report COVID-19 MEXICO until May 8th. The mathematical models: Gompertz and Logistic, as well as the computational model: Artificial Neural Network were applied to carry out the modeling of the number of cases of COVID-19 infection from February 27th to May 8th. The results show a good fit between the observed data and those obtained by the Gompertz, Logistic and Artificial Neural Networks models with an R2 of 0.9998, 0.9996, 0.9999, respectively. The same mathematical models and inverse Artificial Neural Network were applied to predict the number of cases of COVID-19 infection from May 9th to 16th in order to analyze tendencies and extrapolate the projection until the end of the epidemic. The Gompertz model predicts a total of 47,576 cases, the Logistic model a total of 42,131 cases, and the inverse artificial neural network model a total of 44,245 as of May 16th. Finally, to predict the total number of COVID-19 infected until the end of the epidemic, the Gompertz, Logistic and inverse Artificial Neural Network model were used, predicting 469,917, 59,470 and 70,714 cases, respectively.