Increased variability of the western Pacific subtropical high under greenhouse warming

SignificanceThe western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) channels moisture from the tropics that underpins the East Asian summer climate. Interannual variability of the WPSH dominates climate extremes in the densely populated countries of East Asia. In 2020, an anomalously strong WPSH led to catastro...

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Published inProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 119; no. 23; p. e2120335119
Main Authors Yang, Kai, Cai, Wenju, Huang, Gang, Hu, Kaiming, Ng, Benjamin, Wang, Guojian
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States National Academy of Sciences 07.06.2022
Subjects
China
Climate
Far East
Forecasting
Humans
Physical Sciences
Seasons
Far East
China
climate extreme
western Pacific subtropical high
East Asia flooding
climate change
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Summary:SignificanceThe western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) channels moisture from the tropics that underpins the East Asian summer climate. Interannual variability of the WPSH dominates climate extremes in the densely populated countries of East Asia. In 2020, an anomalously strong WPSH led to catastrophic floods with hundreds of deaths, 28,000 homes destroyed, and tens of billions in economic damage in China alone. How the frequency of such strong WPSH events will change is of great societal concern. Our finding of an increase in future WPSH variability, translating into an increased frequency of climate extreme as seen in the 2020 episode, highlights the increased risks for the billions of people in the densely populated East Asia with profound socioeconomic consequences.
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Edited by John Wallace, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; received November 11, 2021; accepted April 4, 2022
Author contributions: K.Y. and W.C. designed research; K.Y. performed research; K.H. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; B.N. and G.W. analyzed data; and K.Y., W.C., and G.H. wrote the paper.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.2120335119