Recent Near-surface Temperature Trends in the Antarctic Peninsula from Observed, Reanalysis and Regional Climate Model Data

• Published in: Advances in atmospheric sciences Vol. 37; no. 5; pp. 477 - 493
• Main Authors: Bozkurt, Deniz, Bromwich, David H., Carrasco, Jorge, Hines, Keith M., Maureira, Juan Carlos, Rondanelli, Roberto
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Heidelberg Science Press 01.05.2020; Springer Nature B.V; Center for Climate and Resilience Research(CR)2, Santiago 8320000, Chile%Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center,The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA%Centro de Investigación GAIA Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas 6200000, Chile%Center for Mathematical Modeling(CMM), University of Chile, Santiago 8320000, Chile%Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago 8320000, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research(CR)2, Santiago 8320000, Chile; Department of Meteorology, University of Valparaíso, Valparaíso 2340000, Chile
• Subjects: Advection; Antarctic Meteorology and Climate: Past; Antarctic temperatures; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate models; Cooling; Domains; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Geophysics/Geodesy; Ice shelves; Land ice; Meteorology; Numerical simulations; Original Paper; Present and Future; Regional climate models; Regional climates; Simulation; Spatial discrimination; Spatial resolution; Summer; Surface temperature; Temperature trends; Trends; Winds; Antarctic Peninsula; 阿蒙森-别林斯高晋海; Weddell Sea; 威德尔海; dynamical downscaling; reanalysis; 再分析; added value; Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea; 动力降尺度; 温度趋势; temperature trend; cloud computing; 宋米荣; 附加值; 云计算
• ISSN: 0256-1530; 1861-9533
• DOI: 10.1007/s00376-020-9183-x

This study investigates the recent near-surface temperature trends over the Antarctic Peninsula. We make use of available surface observations, ECMWF’s ERA5 and its predecessor ERA-Interim, as well as numerical simulations, allowing us to contrast different data sources. We use hindcast simulations performed with Polar-WRF over the Antarctic Peninsula on a nested domain configuration at 45 km (PWRF-45) and 15 km (PWRF-15) spatial resolutions for the period 1991-2015. In addition, we include hindcast simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica domain (~50 km) for further comparisons. Results show that there is a marked windward warming trend except during summer. This windward warming trend is particularly notable in the autumn season and likely to be associated with the recent deepening of the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea low and warm advection towards the Antarctic Peninsula. On the other hand, an overall summer cooling is characterized by the strengthening of the Weddell Sea low as well as an anticyclonic trend over the Amundsen Sea accompanied by northward winds. The persistent cooling trend observed at the Larsen Ice Shelf station is not captured by ERA-Interim, whereas hindcast simulations indicate that there is a clear pattern of windward warming and leeward cooling. Furthermore, larger temporal correlations and lower differences exhibited by PWRF-15 illustrate the existence of the added value in the higher spatial resolution simulation.