Human Core Temperature Prediction for Heat-Injury Prevention

• Published in: IEEE journal of biomedical and health informatics Vol. 19; no. 3; pp. 883 - 891
• Main Authors: Laxminarayan, Srinivas, Buller, Mark J., Tharion, William J., Reifman, Jaques
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States IEEE 01.05.2015; The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
• Subjects: Adult; Algorithms; Autoregressive processes; Body Temperature - physiology; Computational modeling; Computer Simulation; Data models; Decisions; Heat Stress Disorders - diagnosis; Heat Stress Disorders - physiopathology; Heating; Horizon; Human; Humans; Mathematical models; Offsets; Prediction algorithms; Predictive models; Regression Analysis; Reproducibility of Results; Signal Processing, Computer-Assisted; Switches; Temperature measurement; Temperature sensors; Thermometry; Young Adult; prediction interval (PI); Autoregressive (AR) model; core temperature; hyperthermia; sequential probability ratio test (SPRT)
• ISSN: 2168-2194; 2168-2208; 2168-2208
• DOI: 10.1109/JBHI.2014.2332294

Previously, our group developed autoregressive (AR) models to predict human core temperature and help prevent hyperthermia (temperature > 39°C). However, the models often yielded delayed predictions, limiting their application as a real-time warning system. To mitigate this problem, here we combined AR-model point estimates with statistically derived prediction intervals (PIs) and assessed the performance of three new alert algorithms [AR model plus PI, median filter of AR model plus PI decisions, and an adaptation of the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT)]. Using field-study data from 22 soldiers, including five subjects who experienced hyperthermia, we assessed the alert algorithms for AR-model prediction windows from 15-30 min. Cross-validation simulations showed that, as the prediction windows increased, improvements in the algorithms' effective prediction horizons were offset by deteriorating accuracy, with a 20-min window providing a reasonable compromise. Model plus PI and SPRT yielded the largest effective prediction horizons (≥18 min), but these were offset by other performance measures. If high sensitivity and a long effective prediction horizon are desired, model plus PI provides the best choice, assuming decision switches can be tolerated. In contrast, if a small number of decision switches are desired, SPRT provides the best compromise as an early warning system of impending heat illnesses.