A multi-level perspective on the introduction of hydrogen and battery-electric vehicles

• Published in: Technological forecasting & social change Vol. 77; no. 4; pp. 529 - 540
• Main Authors: van Bree, B., Verbong, G.P.J., Kramer, G.J.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Elsevier Inc 01.05.2010; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: Alternative energy sources; Automobile industry; Automobiles; Battery-electric vehicles; Consumers; Correlation analysis; Electricity; Emissions control; Fuel cell vehicles; Fuels; Gasoline prices; Multi-level perspective; Regulation; Security; Social change; Socio-technical pathways; Studies; Technological change; Technological Innovations; Battery-electric vehicles; Fuel cell vehicles; Multi-level perspective; Socio-technical pathways
• ISSN: 0040-1625; 1873-5509
• DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2009.12.005

Alternative vehicles powered by electricity or hydrogen hold the potential to solve a number of challenges that relate to automobile use, such as climate change, deterioration of local air quality, security of energy supply, and high fuel prices. This article addresses the question as to how a transition to vehicles powered by hydrogen or electricity could take place. Recognizing that transitions result from joint development of technology and society, a co-evolutionary, multi-level perspective is adopted. The perspective is used to analyze the dynamics of the relationship between car manufacturers and consumers and developments that put pressure on this relationship. Building on the analysis, two sets of scenarios for a transition to battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles are identified. In one set of scenarios, tightening emissions regulation stimulates carmakers to scale up experiments with alternative vehicles, moving them into the commercialization phase. In the other set, rising fuel prices prompt carmakers to first extend their current product line-up with plug-in versions, and later with battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles. The two scenarios have different implications for the actors involved and for the requisite supporting infrastructure.